Seeds of Sovereignty
Exploring the Unstoppable Trajectory Towards Welsh Independence
The topic of Independence has become a mainstay in British politics for quite some time now. Many, if not all, members of the UK government will of course claim the very opposite. Successive Conservative governments treat independence much the same as a child does Beetlejuice – a mere mention or three enough to manifest it as if out of thin air. They’re wrong, of course, the independence movements across the UK have been slowly building steam for decades. With that in mind, allow me to explain to you why I think Welsh Independence is now all but inevitable.
As early as 2007 and into 2013 support for Welsh Independence was around an abysmal 10% nationally, accounting for the removal of the ‘don’t knows’ – a far cry from the support seen today, granted. Though honestly still a considerable amount of people. Recent polls now put support at somewhere between 25-38%, a considerable leap from just a decade ago. Even more striking is the fact that most recently, the majority of 18 to 24-year-olds (53%) and 25 to 34-year-olds (52%) said that they would vote in favour of Independence for Wales. With support for independence sitting firmly now at 1 in 3, it’s little wonder UK governments are beginning to show signs of concern for independence not just in Scotland, but Wales and, in fact, Northern Ireland too.
This surge in support among the younger generations in Wales is borne from a number of things, chief among them the years of austerity heralded by Conservative governments, and more recently the Cost of Living crisis. Another factor to consider is these generations' ability to seemingly disobey the once set in stone ratchet effect pull of the right-wing to delve further left than those before dared to go. It’s clear also that the youth across the globe are much more active in the fight against the Climate emergency. Coupling this with Wales reducing the age limit for voting to 16 in 2021, and you suddenly have a very potent, left-leaning upcoming majority with its eye firmly fixed on Independence for Wales. Buoyed by the surge in support for Scottish Independence, the movement in Wales is experiencing a resurgence that I believe will carry it to success in less than 20 years, perhaps even a mere decade.
On the topic of Northern Ireland – for the first time Sinn Féin, a Republican socialist party, have become the majority party in the Northern Irish Assembly. With their staunch, outspoken support of a reunified Ireland, this is seen by many as endorsement by the people of Northern Ireland for the cause. Yet another thing the UK government is no doubt sweating over. This is yet another domino falling that can server to embolden those across the Union looking to gain independence. It’s fair to say also that this is a monumental shift in the geopolitical landscape in Northern Ireland, a place where pro-union parties once reigned almost unopposed. To have this shift in a period of time as relatively small as 20 years spells absolute disaster for the union in the future.
With all this in mind, let's try to cut through some of the misinformation surrounding independence and look at what an independent Wales could actually look like. Much of the doom and gloom is in regard to the economy and trade, but I would argue this could be one of the strongest pros. Like its neighbour Ireland, to the west, Wales would benefit greatly from much closer cooperation with the EU in regard to trade. Not only that, but the ability to develop a competitive tax rate and powers over lending would do a lot to draw industry and trade. Economics aside, the ability to rejoin the European Union alone is a considerable boon to any nation looking for independence. Many small countries through EU membership have flourished, blueprints Wales could follow and adapt to when the time comes. Short of joining the EU, Wales could seek to join the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). This alone would put Wales in a much better position as it seeks trade agreements globally.
Another thing oft mentioned during discussion on Welsh Independence is the fact that there is deficit in the Welsh fiscal per capita balance. What this means is that currently, Wales spends more per capita than it recoups. This really isn’t as bad is it sounds though, consider as well that England as a whole also runs a fiscal deficit. Right now Wales has very limited control over taxation, no ability to set its own budget and no powers over lending. With this kind of freedom, solving the deficit, in my opinion, would be a considerably easier task. Combine this with the very real potential of new industry growth and global trade partners, and the question of the deficit is no longer the insurmountable task it is being portrayed as.
If it’s not already obvious, I personally support Independence, not just for Wales – But Scotland and Northern Ireland too. There are many reasons I believe this is the best course for Wales, a number of which you’ve just read about, but frankly the most important reason is this. Wales as a nation, the Welsh as a people, deserve the right of self-determination. In order to flourish as I know this beautiful country can, it needs to free itself from the shackles of political quagmire that has become of this union of unequals. As labour peer Lord Foulkes so aptly put it, the UK was never meant to be a union of equals, in order to reach new heights Wales needs to forge her own path.