Too Little, Too Unionist

The latest anti-independence turn from the Lib Dems isn’t strategy - it’s surrender

There was a time, not too long ago, when the Welsh Liberal Democrats mattered. Never at the top, mind you, but they were at least part of the national conversation. A couple of Senedd seats, a smattering of MPs, a sense of progressive credibility. But that time is over. And after this week’s full-throated rejection of Welsh independence from their lone Senedd member, it’s hard to see them doing anything but fading quietly into political irrelevance.

Polling at a dismal 4% in the latest Beaufort Research poll for the 2026 Senedd elections, the Lib Dems are now barely clinging to representation, with only one MS left, Jane Dodds. The same Jane Dodds who, this week, claimed that Welsh independence would be so disastrous it would “make Brexit look like a walk in the park.” Really?

Let’s be clear: this isn’t just bad messaging. It’s a catastrophic misread of the political moment in Wales, and it exposes a party no longer capable of understanding, never mind representing, the people of this country.

Lost in the Fog of Unionism

There’s something bizarrely self-defeating about the Welsh Liberal Democrats. They claim to support federalism and further devolution. They backed the devolution of the Crown Estate. They’ve waxed lyrical about closer ties with Europe. And yet, when the only viable path to actually achieving these aims, independence, comes up, they recoil in horror.

It’s almost beyond belief.

Because let’s be real: what exactly is their vision for Wales? A fantasy Britain where all the nations are respected equally? A benevolent Westminster that voluntarily hands over more power without a fight? That ship sailed a long time ago — if it ever existed in the first place. The brutal reality is that Westminster doesn’t care about Wales, and never will. If the Lib Dems can’t see that, or won’t admit it, then what good are they to anyone?

Dodds’ comparison of Welsh independence to Brexit is particularly galling. Brexit was a project of right-wing nationalism, isolationism, and imperial delusion. Welsh independence is a democratic response to decades of neglect and economic exploitation. One was a leap off a cliff with a Union Jack parachute. The other is a lifeboat built in the shadow of a sinking ship.

A Party Without a Base

The truth is, the Welsh Lib Dems have been losing their electoral base for years. Once seen as a principled third force in British politics, they sacrificed their integrity in coalition with the Tories in Westminster propping up austerity, enabling tuition fee hikes, and helping dismantle public services across the UK. Voters never forgave them, and rightly so.

They’ve tried to claw back relevance since then, mostly by standing still while everyone else moved on. Wales has changed - but they haven’t. While Plaid Cymru is surging with an unapologetic vision of sovereignty and renewal, while Greens picked up disillusioned progressives, the Lib Dems offered... what? More of the same? A nicer shade of decline?

Now, instead of trying to rebuild through bold ideas or by engaging with the independence movement, they’ve chosen instead to alienate the growing number of people who see independence not as a risk, but as the only hope we have left.

Betting Against the Future

This isn’t just political cowardice. It’s strategic suicide. Independence marches now draw thousands. Plaid is polling within 3% of Labour. Young people are overwhelmingly pro-indy. Even long-time devolution sceptics are starting to ask the big questions about Wales’ future.

So for the Lib Dems to come out swinging against independence, using tired scare tactics and empty economic doom-mongering, is to bet everything against the direction Wales is moving. It’s the political equivalent of yelling at the tide.

If their goal was to remain relevant in a Wales that’s slowly waking up to its own potential, then they’ve chosen the worst possible hill to die on. And die they will, at least politically. Unless of course something drastically changes.

The Final Nail

There was once a future where the Welsh Liberal Democrats might have rebranded themselves as the radical federalists, the bridge between Labour’s timidity and Plaid’s boldness. But that future is gone. Instead, they’ve cast themselves as another tired, Unionist relic. Out of step, out of time, and out of ideas.

If Jane Dodds’ comments are anything to go by, they haven’t just given up on independence, they’ve given up on Wales.

At 4% in the polls, they’re not so much a political party as an unfortunate footnote, and unless they wake up soon, that’s all they’ll ever be again.