Welsh Independence

Shaping a Self-Determined Future for Wales

The movement for Welsh independence from the United Kingdom has gained significant traction in recent years, driven by the desire for greater control over Wales' political, economic, and global affairs. This piece aims to delve deeper into the key points supporting the push for Welsh independence, addressing concerns related to political representation, limited powers, economic considerations, and global engagement.

In recent years, support for Welsh independence has surged, highlighting the growing traction of the movement. At present, Welsh Members of Parliament (MPs) comprise a mere 6 percent of the House of Commons, severely limiting Wales' political influence. Regardless of how Wales votes in general elections, the ultimate formation of the Westminster government is heavily influenced by the majority opinion in England. Consequently, Welsh votes often hold minimal weight in shaping the UK's political landscape. Although devolution has brought about some progress in areas such as health and education, Wales continues to lag behind other UK nations and remains the poorest among them. The current devolved powers, including taxation and welfare spending, do not provide a comprehensive framework for a truly integrated approach to governance, resulting in frustratingly slow improvements.

Meaningful change can only be made by a Welsh Government that has all the levers of power at its disposal. How can you have a truly organized approach to health and social care if welfare spending and full powers over taxation are not within your powers? Contrary to the argument that Wales is too small to be independent, numerous European countries with smaller populations successfully assert their sovereignty. Size alone does not determine a nation's success; instead, it is the ability to exercise sovereign powers and control the tools required to shape and develop the economy. Small nations often exhibit advantages such as greater social cohesion, improved democratic decision-making, and increased adaptability to economic shocks.

Moreover, rather than proving a hindrance, being small can provide added opportunities. Adam Price and Ben Levine’s essay “The Flotilla Effect” identified a number of advantages small nations have over larger nations when it comes to economics: they’re generally more open to trade; they tend to have greater social cohesion and improved democratic decision-making; and they find it easier to adapt to economic shocks. One of the key benefits of Welsh independence would be the empowerment of the Welsh government with a broader range of economic tools, including greater control over taxation and borrowing. Currently, the Welsh government possesses limited authority in these areas, typically resulting in decisions favouring England to prevent perceived disadvantages. Independence would allow Wales to create economic policies tailored to its specific needs and aspirations.

Independence wouldn’t automatically make Wales wealthier, but it would give the Welsh government a set of economic tools that it doesn’t have at the moment. Currently, the Welsh government has minimal powers over taxation and borrowing. The powers it does have are hamstrung in ways that ensure England is not disadvantaged. As an example, the UK Treasury has repeatedly refused Welsh Government calls to devolve Air Passenger Duty, stating that doing so would give Cardiff Airport an advantage over Bristol Airport. Critics frequently highlight Wales' fiscal deficit as a major hurdle to independence. Looking at the estimated fiscal balance over the last two decades, we see that the deficit has fluctuated significantly from a low around 2000 to a high in 2010, following the global financial crisis. The fiscal deficit of the UK as a whole was as high as £167.4bn in 2010, while the UK Government is expected to borrow up to £372bn to cover the costs of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is also important to note that independent nations commonly run long-term fiscal deficits, and many OECD countries have averaged deficits between 3 and 8 percent over the last decade.

In Wales currently, companies are registered in England & Wales, as we have a single legal jurisdiction. As a consequence, companies that often have more than one factory or office site will register in England, and all taxes are collated in the English Headquarters with no distinction of what taxes (especially corporation tax) are being raised by the Wales site. The Office of National Statistics simply does not have this information. Since the establishment of the Welsh Assembly (now the Senedd Cymru), the people of Wales have demonstrated their support for devolution through referendums, gradually expanding the legislative powers of the Senedd. However, during the Brexit process, the UK Government sought to reclaim powers that were previously held by the Welsh Government, reducing its authority. Independence would provide a fresh start, enabling Wales to shape its own future and create a new Wales, guided by the rules and values it chooses.

Independence means a clean slate and an opportunity to create and shape a new Wales, working to rules we decide to set ourselves. Many nations have adopted constitutions that go beyond guaranteeing basic liberal rights. A Welsh constitution, for example, could guarantee a right to free healthcare and education. Citizens could have the right to a decent home, placing a responsibility on all future governments to eliminate homelessness. As part of the UK, Wales has minimal influence on global affairs, with the Westminster government speaking on behalf of the entire nation. Given that England represents 84 percent of the UK's population, negotiations, and relations with other countries are primarily driven by English needs. This lack of representation and influence was evident during the Brexit negotiations, where the steel industry and immigration policy were relegated in favour of English priorities, leading to avoidable uncertainties and challenges for Welsh sectors reliant on migrant workers. The UK Government set an income threshold for prospective immigrants based on average salaries, which were distorted by the south of England. It resulted in key sectors in Wales traditionally reliant on migrant workers to fill labour shortages – such as social care, hospitality, the NHS, and the food industry – facing completely avoidable uncertainty. Further reading regarding many of the points made here and even some I’ve not had the time to look into, check out “Independence in your pocket” from YesCymru.

Professor John Doyle of Dublin's City University conducted an analysis indicating that the fiscal gap in the early days of an independent Wales would amount to approximately £2.6 billion. This figure is significantly lower than the often-quoted £13.5 billion and is based on the 2019 estimate of total Welsh economic output at £77.5 billion. It would equate to just under 3.4% of GDP, which is comparable to the average fiscal deficit across all OECD countries in 2019 (3.2%). While challenges exist, they are not insurmountable and can be addressed with careful management and planning.

In conclusion, the case for Welsh independence encompasses the fundamental principles of self-determination and sovereignty. Welsh independence would enable Wales to shape its own political landscape, exercise comprehensive powers, and adopt tailored economic policies. It would provide the opportunity to champion Welsh values and aspirations, enhancing social welfare and guaranteeing essential rights. By becoming an independent nation, Wales could play a more active role on the global stage, ensuring its interests are represented and prioritized. While challenges exist, the potential benefits of Welsh independence far outweigh the status quo, offering a path towards a more prosperous and self-determined future.